Tehran, Iran – Representatives of the world powers that signed the 2015 nuclear deal are heading to Vienna on Tuesday to save the milestone deal, but the road ahead looks long and hard.
The remaining members of the agreement – Iran, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom – will do so on Friday, the report said. Talk privately To avoid complete breakdown was welcomed as a welcome development.
Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s nuclear chief, said in a late-night chat at Clubhouse last week that the stalemate was being “broken” as a “child’s” argument about who should act first in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (GCPOA).
Iran and the United States, however, will not be in the same room in Vienna, as Iran has insisted. There is no direct or indirect discussion The ban was imposed by former President Donald Trump in 2018 after the United States unilaterally abandoned the agreement before lifting tough sanctions between the two countries.
A year later, despite opposition from other Iranian signatories, the United States began renewing its commitment to the deal in response to its “maximum pressure” campaign.
Sina Ajodi, a non-resident ally of the Atlantic Council, said both Iran and the United States had expressed political will to restore the agreement.
But on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet that GCPOA signatories would direct their attention to speedy ratification in Vienna, which could be easier said than done.
“The point here is that Iran’s actions in violating this agreement are reversible, while for the United States, it will be more difficult because of the Trump administration’s policy of destroying the JCPOA as much as possible and the complex web of sanctions,” Azod said.
Zarif said earlier this year that the United States had imposed, re-elected or re-imposed about 100,000 sanctions on Iran. Compensation tr 1 trillion The cost of direct and indirect economic loss.
It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.
‘On the Right Path’
Trump administration officials create a new designated, embargoed mission in 2020 – “terrorism” and human rights abuses Already approved Iranian individuals And a potential entity in an effort to make it harder for the Joe Biden administration to return to the nuclear deal.
Iran expects all sanctions imposed by Trump – under any label – to be lifted, according to Diaco Hussein, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, a research arm of the Iranian president’s office.
“It’s clear that Tehran officials are well aware of the limitations of the United States and the Biden administration, but at the same time it’s not about Iran, it’s about the United States,” he told Al Jazeera.
Husseini said the forthcoming talks would be difficult, especially since there could be clear contradictions between the various parties expecting each other to reciprocate to restore the JCPOA, expectations that need to be reconciled.
“I don’t expect sudden and big success, but we can be sure that we are on the right track. He is hopeful, “At the end of the Vienna talks, we will have a clear vision of what all parties should do to bring back their commitment under the GCPOA,” he said.
Ali Waz, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran project, said he believed more than one round of talks was needed to find a way forward, but that the first round should not fail.
He told Al Jazeera: “It is not difficult to assume that there is any similarity between the Iranian expectation and the proposal that the United States is interested in, but with realism, both sides will be able to move forward in a mutually acceptable way.”
He spoke in support of the US Alliance, but said that maintaining some independence was important for the JPCO. “But if Tehran leaves with the highest expectations, it will end up empty-handed,” he said.
Iran’s foreign ministry said earlier this week that Tehran would not “take a step-by-step plan” to raise the issue. The level of American sanctions, And hopes that America will take the “final step” to lift all sanctions imposed by Trump.
Why talk now?
Some observers say the resumption of nuclear talks was influenced by the signing of the Iran-China agreement. A 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Tehran in late March.
Again some believe that the crank has had an effect when restoring the contract. As one, a three-month contract was concluded with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to expire in late May to temporarily keep camera tapes of surveillance at Iran’s nuclear sites.
The deal averted a crisis in late February as global nuclear surveillance could face significant gaps in monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities.
Moreover, Iran’s presidential election in June is fast approaching, with perhaps a conservative or radical president – perhaps a military background aide – promising to preserve the GCPA as a relatively moderate outgoing president, Hassan Rouhani.
Ajodi of the Atlantic Council, however, said he was optimistic about a move, not down, because Rouhani wanted to step down by lifting the ban for multiple reasons, including saving his political reputation.
“In short, his administration will focus on working to lift the ban as soon as possible, perhaps before he leaves office,” he said.
‘Limited window of opportunity’
Meanwhile, extremists in Iran’s parliament are trying to maintain an active role in the future of the GCPOA.
On Sunday, several lawyers issued a public statement saying the only way for the United States to return to the nuclear deal would be for the Rouhani administration to submit a report to parliament on the complete lifting of sanctions, which must be approved before it can be finalized.
Assassination of a senior nuclear and military scientist in November Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Iran has encouraged hardliners in parliament by blaming Israel for the blatant attack, which has passed a law that has enabled it to increase uranium enrichment and restrict IAEA inspections.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says Iran “No hurry“Iran can increase its uranium enrichment to 60 percent even if the country needs it, even after the lifting of sanctions and the severe damage from local government and sanctions-19-epidemic.”
Husseini of the Center for Strategic Studies said he felt he probably wanted to close the unresolved talks now, especially since talks would not be possible without a green light from the Supreme Leader.
“But if the talks do not yield the expected results from Iran, the conservatives – who are encouraged by the proximity of the election – will be more encouraged, and then cannot say what they can do to stop the progress of the talks.”
“So, the window of opportunity is very limited for all parties.”