Before he won the US election, North Korea fired Joe Biden as a “low IQ fool,” while presidential candidate Kim Jong Un was branded a “thug.”
However, in the wake of the White House’s announcement that its policy on North Korea has been consolidated, there are growing doubts about whether the president will move away from the opposition and embrace a nuclear-armed dictator.
A number of details of the plan have been announced, but many foreign policy experts feel that the US president has already reduced Washington’s focus on North Korea – a priority for the Donald Trump administration – such as Biden wanting to address domestic issues and The focus on China is sharp.
Suu Kyi, a former CIA analyst who briefed Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama on North Korea, believes that Biden’s policy was made “not as a move, but as a” holding action. “
“The administration is not hyping his proposal. It understands that North Korea is less likely to ‘solve’ the problem; He is probably trying to keep North Korea silent so that it can focus on more pressing priorities elsewhere, ”he said.
Now, after completing a month-long policy review, administration officials said Biden would “explore diplomacy” as part of a “calibrated, pragmatic approach.” They have also scrutinized expectations that the last four presidents have refused to give up on North Korea. Nuclear weapons.
“We have … a very clear policy that focuses on diplomacy … North Korea must decide whether or not it wants to be involved on that basis,” Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Monday.
Reviews followed a Turbulent period In US-North Korea relations. Trump has broken protocol and met three times with the North Korean leader after hostilities and weapons tests escalated. Trump at a time of tension reduction Failed to achieve A long-term deal.
But as Biden distances himself from Trump and Obama, he and most of his foreign policy team have served for eight years.
Referring to Trump’s drama conference and Obama’s inaction on North Korea, White House Press Secretary Jane Sasaki said, “Our policy will not focus on a major deal, nor will it rely on ‘strategic patience’.”
On Sunday, Pyongyang threatened Biden’s “intent to maintain force.” . . Hostile policy “and warned that” over time the United States will find itself in a very dire situation “.
Suu Kyi, a former CIA analyst at Theme-Tank Rand Corporation, hoped the Kim government would do it. Resume military provocation. “Pyongyang is a bit behind the Brickmanship,” he said.
Last month, the U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment warned that North Korea would pose a “growing threat” to the United States. It said Kim believed that over time he would gain international acceptance as a nuclear power and that “perhaps the current level of pressure on his regime would not be considered sufficient to necessitate a fundamental change in his approach.”
Terry, who is at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said North Korea had been offered a “phased deal” that would offer some sanctions relief in exchange for limited nuclear concessions, “creating a logical conclusion.”
“But in reality, it’s unlikely to be effective,” he said. “If Kim keeps his resolve, the talks will go nowhere and I doubt the Biden team will be surprised.”
To complicate matters further, Washington is also trying to manage Seoul’s expectations In favor of simplifying sanctions And greater economic engagement with Pyongyang and Tokyo, which holds much stronger lines.
Biden’s national security adviser, Jack Sullivan, told the Financial Times that diplomacy with North Korea would be “partially bilateral and partly multilateral”.
The source pointed to another priority of the Biden administration: to avoid a wide gap between Japan and South Korea at a time when the United States is trying to work with allies to respond to China’s rise.
Biden’s warnings about North Korea reflected divisions among Washington experts over the extent to which North Korea could be involved.
“If I believe that North Korea will not refuse, then so be it [Biden administration’s] The policy is to reduce the risk of nuclear weapons, “said William Perry, a former United States Secretary of Defense.
Despite Pyongyang’s blaster, others believe Kim did not reject diplomacy outright, as he sought to free himself from the shackles of economic sanctions.
Ramon Pacheco Purdo, a North Korean expert at King’s College London, has cited a number of “positive signals” to Kim’s adherence to the de-facto moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests since his summit with Trump in Singapore in 2018.
Preparations are also underway for a possible “track two” discussion: back channel talks involving North Korean diplomats and foreign private experts, people familiar with the talks said.
“They must have left the door open,” said Glenn Ford, a former member of the European Parliament, in close contact with high-ranking North Korean officials. “I don’t know how open the door is.”