About 65 countries will see their GDP fall by about 20 percent by 2050 if temperatures continue to rise, according to a new report released at COP26.
The 65 most vulnerable nations will see their gross domestic product (GDP) fall by an average of 20 percent by 2050 and 64 percent by 2100 if the world warms 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit), according to a report released Monday at the COP26 has been released. climate talks in Glasgow.
Even if global temperature rises are limited to 1.5 C (2.7 F), in line with the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement, the same countries will have a GDP hit of 13 percent by 2050 and 33 percent by the end of the century, the study commissioned by Christian Aid said.
To date, the earth’s average surface temperature has risen by 1.1C (2F) compared to late 19th century levels.
The study findings show that more than a third of the world’s nations urgently need help to build resilience if their economies want to withstand the onslaught of heat waves, droughts, floods and storms made more intense and deadly by global warming.
“The ability of countries in the global south to develop sustainably is seriously jeopardized,” said lead author Marina Andrijevic of Humboldt University in Berlin.
“The policy choices we are making now are crucial to prevent further damage.”
Eight of the top 10 countries most affected are in Africa, with two in South America.
All 10 are facing more than 70 percent GDP damage by 2100 under the current climate policy trajectory, and 40 percent even if global warming is limited to 1.5C.
The country facing the worst GDP loss is Sudan, which was left in September by heavy rains and flash floods that affected more than 300,000 people.
The country would see a 32 percent GDP reduction by 2050, and 84 percent by 2100 compared to if there was no climate change.
The countries covered by the report form two key negotiating blocs in the United Nations’ climate talks, which run until Friday: the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).
Small island states are particularly vulnerable to storm surges exacerbated by rising seas.
The study does not take into account adaptation measures, which could potentially alleviate some of the damage.
To date, rich governments have committed only modest sums to help poor countries adapt to climate impacts.
“Africa has done the least to cause climate change, but this report shows that it will have the worst consequences. This is deeply unfair, ”said Mohamed Adow, director of Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa.