Fri. Dec 3rd, 2021

In the struggle In contrast to climate change, one figure stands out above all others: 1.5 degrees Celsius. It may be difficult to wrap your head around the effects of a warming increase, but the difference between 1.5 এবং C and 2 সেল C is profound. To give an example: at 1.5 সেল C, we are talking about losing 70 percent of the coral wall; At 2 সেল C, the coral will go away. At 1.5 সেল C, 1 out of every 100 Arctic summers will be ice-free; At 2 সেল C it is 1 in 10.

With the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow now nearing the finish line, one of the biggest questions to answer is whether it has survived the 1.5 degree Celsius target. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson Called on the countries “Remove all stops in the next few days to save 1.5.” And a Statement From the “High Ambitions Alliance” calling on countries to commit to more ambitious climates, consistent with 1.5 degrees Celsius before COP27. There are now 41 supporting countries, Including the United States.

For countries like the Marshall Islands, that is Is facing extinction If emissions from climate change do not reign supreme, the idea of ​​not increasing short-term climate commitment is a nonstarter. “We need to come back to make sure that the nationally defined contributions are aligned with 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said Tina Stage, the Marshall Islands climate envoy, in COP26 on November 10. Until these goals are met, they will be put on the table. “

With all the mixed messages from COP26, it’s hard to tell how close we’re to achieving the 1.5 degree Celsius target. An analysis published last week By the International Energy Agency (IEA) It has been speculated that the climate commitments made so far in COP26 could help limit global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. But different Analysis Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has found that current commitments to increase global warming by 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century will put real policy and action on track for global warming to a whopping 2.7 degrees Celsius, a pathway UN chief Antonio Guterres said. The real-world differences between 1.8 এবং C and 2.7 হবে C will deepen.

So how are you? The problem is all this Guess, Which will make certain assumptions about what will happen by their nature. The IEA’s assessment assumes that all long-term net zero commitments will be met and will include top-level commitments made last week, e.g. Methane emissions should be reduced by 30 percent by 2030.

But all of these commitments are currently not included in the countries’ more formal, short-term climate commitment to the UN, known as the Nationally Defined Contribution (NDC).

Nicholas Hohen, a partner at the Climate Institute and co-author of CAT analysis, says that when CAT made the same assumptions as the IEA, it actually came up with the same numbers. “We also have a very optimistic outlook that will drop to 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, but we have basically warned that this is unlikely to happen,” he said. “Countries do not have enough short-term policies to move themselves in a path towards their own net-zero goal সমস্যা short-term problem.”

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