In fact, Covid is both optimistic and pessimistic


These response loops are more complex Asymmetry How we view information and connect it to our behavior as individuals. Optimists can update their information as part Optimistic update bias (Towards taking more risks). Even if the “optimistic” model is presented, pessimists can be more risky. It is no different Confirmation bias. Our behavior also depends Cognitive belief: How We Rely Enough to Change Our Minds and Behaviors Depending on an Expert’s Forecast Push against A controversial article AtlanticWritten by an economist on the risk of Kovid-19 infection in children.

Science and especially epidemiology is concerned with measurement and truth. The right model is important. At the point of time, however, if a group of individuals listens to the worst-case scenario / pessimistic / cautionary policy model, there is actually a possibility of the worst. Decrease As a result of changes in group behavior to reduce risk. The opposite is also true: at the same time, if a group of individuals listens to the “dynamic causal” / optimistic model and their behavior becomes more liberal, the model shifts. Towards The worst case scenario.

“The epidemic forecast is similar to the weather forecast, which is good for a 10-day outlook, but I can’t tell you what the weather will be like in the third week of July,” Ledger told me. With infectious diseases, “we can’t say what will happen in three months from now, since the underlying information contains our policy and behavior and uncertainty.”

Let’s get back to J: In Scenario 1 he may decide to take that pessimistic model as a protest against quitting smoking. The opposite can happen in situation 2, ideally, his doctor can share both estimates, and it will be up to J to weigh both options.

Public health is complex, because individual decisions can affect their communities. Arguably, it is better to be prepared and vigilant than the following, where millions of lives are at risk, although individual independence and outward appearances towards the economy are also important and affect our preferences and risk assessments.

Here’s the good news: over time, optimism and pessimism can model predictions Appeared Combining so both visual and dynamic causal models are correct in one sense: overall and gradually we tend to Together make more accurate predictions. This suggests that as the number of cases decreases, the models will become synonymous with each other, indicating the end of the epidemic or merely a reflection of it. Sharing an email shortly after: “All models rarely get a destination. How many days and which way it happens is just a matter.”

As such, a more “realistic” approach, which favors the uninterrupted use of masks, vaccines and social distance, may best achieve the hopeful results of animal immunity and a more enjoyable “normal” return to life later this year.

When I did a Twitter survey earlier this month, More than two-thirds About 70,000 respondents seemed to have a more optimistic view, with the end of the epidemic in North America approaching. At first I was relieved but realized that if the same optimism dictates less intelligent behavior, this attitude could lead to more pessimistic consequences. Instead, the balance on the basis of caution is evidence-based Pessimism Currently, with the idea that this may be the reason Optimistic In the future, it may be best to instruct behavior so that we can emerge from it together, Like the others Is considered. Another way to summarize the latest is by author Ezra Klein Tweets: “Hope seems like an insecure emotion lately. Personally and professionally, I don’t want to wax optimistic just to be crushed as the death toll rises. Pessimism is safe “

With a healthier dose of tolerance for change and uncertainty perhaps practicality is safer.


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