U.S. President Joe Biden is pushing for the resumption of Iran’s nuclear deal, and weeks of talks in Austria appear to be bearing fruit.
Israel, however, sees security as being threatened by a potential nuclear Iran and is trying to thwart negotiations in any way possible.
Yossi Cohen, head of the Mossad intelligence agency, a close confidante of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, met with Biden on Friday, and a media report said the US president had been pressured not to sign the nuclear deal unless “improvements” were made.
Citing an unnamed senior Israeli official, Biden responded that the United States was “not close” to a return to the Iran deal, Axios said. Report.
Israel’s opposition to the nuclear deal appears to be out of the question, although Iran has accused it. Killing its top nuclear scientist And in one attack after another, its main nuclear power plant is destroying Natanz. Israel has not confirmed or denied its involvement.
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said in March that his country had Drawing a strike plan If Tehran continues to develop nuclear weapons, Iran will be the target.
Simon Maven, a professor of international politics at Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera that hawk elements in Israel and especially in the government would play a leading role in advancing Tehran’s nuclear program.
“Those who support Netanyahu’s views on the Iranian government are adamant that the Islamic Republic cannot be resisted through a stalemate in its traditional form and that a military strike is needed,” Maban said.
Yaniv Volar, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, says Israel’s efforts against Iran’s nuclear program – often described as a “shadow war” – are likely to continue. Positive events in Vienna Following Tehran’s recent talks with world powers on the nuclear deal.
But Volar said that despite Israel’s best efforts, a warm war was unlikely.
“I do not think the shadow war will explode completely between Israel and Iran. The bigger risk is the local conflict between the Israeli and Iranian proxies in the region, “Volar told Al Jazeera.
“It simply came to our notice then Reminds me of summer 2006, But with the possibility of being more destructive. “Both sides are not interested in escalating the situation, but naturally conflicts sometimes spiral.”
Volar added that Israel’s history indicates a conspiracy of possible natural attacks to defend itself, and that such a move cannot be ruled out if a new nuclear deal is executed.
“There are some people in Israel who call for a pre-strike. But there is no less influential voice to identify risks and challenges, ”he said.
He argued that, as recent events have shown, the option of effectively targeting Israel is much broader than just the previous offensive.
“However, some measures related to Israel and the United States have already caused considerable damage to Iran’s nuclear program, so the only pre-planned strike to delay Iran’s nuclear program is not the only viable option.”
‘Historic ratio is incorrect’
The United States, the United Kingdom, China, Russia and France, as well as Germany, adopted the Joint Integrated Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 to monitor and limit Iran’s nuclear program.
In return the United Nations, the European Union and the United States gradually lifted their devastating economic sanctions against Iran.
Netanyahu opposed the deal and also ignored Israel’s everlasting bipartisan stance on US politics when he addressed the US Congress, targeting then-US President Barack Obama, not just the GCPA.
But for many Democrats and Obama, Netanyahu has failed to achieve his goals, becoming a personal non-grapple.
On April 2, 2015, the actors involved agreed to the GCPOA. Tehran will then be forced to inspect its nuclear program until 2025.
Obama called the deal “historic” and Netanyahu called it “a mistake of historic historical proportions.”
No wonder Netanyahu’s position was included because the agreement included controversial issues that were difficult to reconcile with Israel’s security concerns.
Moreover, the JCPOA extended the deadline for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, but Iran could not eliminate its future nuclear capability because the government had already acquired the necessary knowledge and allowed Iran to maintain its nuclear infrastructure.
This raises the question of what the 2015 JCPOA has achieved.
“The original JCPOA suspended Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Moreover, it also exposed Iran’s weakness to international pressure, even if Iran really tried to use the agreement to gain time, but did so because sanctions were detrimental to its economy, “Volar said.
This, of course, was insufficient for Israel.
‘Threat of existence?’
Not surprisingly, Netanyahu praised US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the deal in 2011 – although the pullout allowed Iran to increase its nuclear stockpile. Decrease The time now is for it to become a nuclear power.
But with Biden’s victory in November, the JCPOA is now back on the table.
“Like all the other actors involved, it seems that Washington is basically intent on winning time, hoping that after prolonging Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capability, a change in regime can be seen.”
“Most people in Washington are not interested in seeing Iran become a nuclear power, which could start a nuclear weapons war in the Middle East.”
However, unlike the 2015 GCPOA, the US plan to revive the agreement is not satisfactory to Israel, Maabon said.
“Like many Arab Gulf countries, the Israeli leadership views the JCPOA with great concern, fearing that the agreement is insufficient to prevent uranium enrichment.”
Israel’s continued opposition has raised questions about whether Netanyahu is using the JCPOA as a political stunt, or whether it is a real threat to Israel’s security.
The question is difficult to assess, and in Israel the issue could be more complicated than Netanyahu has said, Mabon said.
“Israeli officials have regularly argued that Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose a non-existent threat to the state. However, Israel’s position on Iran’s nuclear program is more complex than initially understood.
Bhola shares this feeling. “The Israeli security establishment is not monotonous. The Israeli voice called on Netanyahu to get involved with the original JCPOA, according to the idea it bought in Israel time. ”
Nuclear deal 2.0
Volar also emphasized the key point of a “JCPOA 2.0”
“Israel saw the JCPOA as a way to move toward nuclear and continues to do so. [armed] Iran, ”he said.
No one can be surprised at Israel’s reluctance to do so. Iran Current breach of contract Adding to this concern, although measures may be for profit, not for naughty purposes, Mabon argued.
“Although Iran has retreated against regular IAEA inspectors, it will probably be part of a more comprehensive post before the new clause is discussed,” he said. “In this vein, it seems clear that all interested parties dedicated to this issue are trying to position themselves in the strongest possible way before future discussions.”
Tehran has routinely denied pursuing nuclear weapons and criticized its track record for transparency.
Israel – with a Undeclared nuclear weapons arsenal Its own – raises the question of why the country, which has the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves, is so focused on an alleged civilian nuclear program to secure the country’s energy.
In the case of Israel, the question still remains whether Iran can be trusted not to use its technical prowess in developing a nuclear weapon in the short term – its nuclear delay.
Netanyahu is convinced that Iran will continue to pursue nuclear weapons and has never completely stopped its efforts. Just buying time for Israel and expecting a change of regime cannot be the last resort.
“We’ve seen in the last few weeks that the GCPOA, under Obama’s initiative, has not prevented Iran from becoming a nuclear marginalized state,” Volar said.
“Whether or not a nuclear Iran poses an existential threat to Israel has certainly been the subject of heated debate inside and outside Israel. But as far as the GCPOA goes, it seems that Israeli concerns about the deal have been rather justified. ”
The upcoming presidential election in June will see Iranian extremists turn the country away from reformists. In such a scenario, questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear capability will become more important than ever.
Netanyahu will rightly recall how former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not only improved Iran’s program, but openly referred to Israel as a “disgraceful stain.”Deleted the face of the map“
Westerners will get their hands full in Vienna if they want to reach an agreement on the basis of just buying time. Analysts say that “fix it or knock it out” will be a necessary condition for Israel and that Washington should not be avoided.
Iran is an actor who has made no secret of his opposition to Israel. The risk of a nuclear-armed Iran is a gamble for Israel because observers believe that Iran’s upcoming elections could once again significantly change the pace of the Middle East.