Fri. May 20th, 2022

I think it probably doesn’t have the legs to get that far. It is selling about what, 22 or 23 million a year? Nintendo has said that it plans for it to be a 7 year console, which likely means a new console at least announced around 6.5 years or near the 7 year mark (if they push for a 7.5 year life) of Switch life cycle. The next gen announcement normally puts a big dampener on sales. It will be 5 years old in March. Plus its ability to get ports of this new gen games will also likely drop off a bit in next 12-18 months, and the Series X and PS5 should have more availability as the year goes on and certainly in 2023.

With all that in mind, I think you would expect numbers to be a bit lower for Switch in its sixth and seventh year, possibly more around or even a bit below the 20 million mark in year six (March 2022-March2023) and markedly lower in its seventh year, especially if a successor is announced.

Of course, this is all speculative and I will enjoy being completely wrong as the Switch has two bumper 25million+ years…

Edit: based on comments below I would say there’s a good case it could be a 7-8 year life cycle (if sales hold up), but don’t think that changes what I said above.

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