Mon. Dec 6th, 2021


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Hello and welcome to the work week.

The Chinese Communist Party is preparing to do something it has only done three times in its existence when it meets on Monday for the sixth and penultimate plenum of its five-year term, and it has echoes of a dark period in the country’s past.

The only advertised item on the agenda for the four-day event is a resolution on the “important achievements and historical experiences of the party’s 100 years of struggle” – a measure previously undertaken by Deng Xiaoping in 1981 and Mao Zedong in 1945. is. first “historic resolution” condemned those with divergent views towards Mao, which paved the way for him to become sole leader.

This week’s vote will pass, paving the way for the current president, Xi Jinping, to secure an unprecedented third term at the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Congress next year. China is now undergoing a new control revolution.

It’s a week of commemoration – especially the end of World War I and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Both of these have a resonance for Germany, which is taking into account his future post Merkel.

However, it is a reminder to all of us about why we need to be aware of where we are coming from, as well as look forward to events.

Companies

Among the results this week are two UK main street brands. First, we have Marks and Spencer, who is halfway through his latest, and by all accounts, most far-reaching turnaround attempt. Profit upgrades at M&S ​​have been rare everyday for the past three decades, so even an acknowledgment in August that the full-year gains would be at the top of forecasts was enough to cause a boom in equities. They have now doubled since the depths of the pandemic last year.

Investors will be looking for evidence this week that the changes it is making are yielding sustainable results. Sector-wide concerns such as supply chain cost pressures – this piece on that subject by Tim Harford is incidentally very good – and the prospect of weakening household finances will also be in focus. Analysts are currently expecting revenue of around £ 5 billion for the six months to September, with operating profit of £ 350 million.

The rise of lockdown was key for Associated British Foods. In the last full year before the pandemic, two-thirds of ABF’s annual operating profit came from clothing, in the form of low-price fashion retailer Primark.

In the year to September, analysts expect it to be comfortably less than half the group total after restrictions forced its 380 stores across Europe and the US to close for long periods. But stores traded strongly when they were open, and investors will want reassurance that this is still the case.

Another earnings announcement to look at is Anglo-Swedish drugmaker AstraZeneca on Friday, especially after Pfizer last week increased its revenue forecast for its Covid-19 vaccine up to $ 36 billion in a bullish results statement.

Investors want AstraZeneca to clarify whether it even intends to sell its Covid shot after the pandemic is over – the sting still has not been approved the world’s largest pharmaceutical market, the USA.

But AstraZeneca is making its money with its other products – particularly cancer treatments – and analysts expect an increase in sales and earnings per share from the third quarter last year.

Economic data

This week’s economic schedule includes US and Chinese inflation data, Japan has GDP figures out, just like the UK – where quarterly and monthly figures are expected to paint conflicting pictures from the recovery of coronavirus – trade figures and the Zew survey from Germany, Australian job numbers plus another round of central bankers making speeches.

Personally, I would rather hear your views, not on the economic prospects, but what you think of this newsletter. You can email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com.

Key economic and company reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • Japan, current account and trade balance

  • Switzerland, monthly unemployment data

  • Results: Henkel V3, PayPal V3, SoftBank V2

Tuesday

  • France, monthly trade balance figures

  • Germany, trade balance data and Zew economic sentiment survey

  • Mexico, Consumer Price Index data

  • Persimmon trade update

  • UK, UK Retail Consortium monthly retail sales report

  • US Producer Price Index Statistics

  • Results: Associated British Foods FY, I had H1, Bayer V3, Currency base V3, Direct line V3, Media set V3, Munich Re V3, Nissan H1, Porsche V3, Salvatore Ferragamo V3, Swiss life V3

Wednesday

  • China, monthly inflation data

  • Germany, CPI figures

  • Italy, industrial production data

  • Russia, Q3 GDP data

  • US, monthly CPI and weekly unemployment figures

  • Results: ABN Amro V3, Adidas V3, Ahold Delhaize V3, Alcon V3, Alliance V3, Continental V3, Agricultural credit V3, EDF V3, Eon V3, Halfords FY, Infineon Technologies FY, Marks and Spencer H1, NTT H1, Walt Disney FY

Thursday

  • EU, European Central Bank’s monthly economic bulletin

  • Taylor Wimpey trade update

  • UK, monthly and Q3 GDP estimate, trade balance, industrial production and services index

  • Results: Aegon V3, ArcelorMittal V3, Aviva V3, Bechtle V3, Geox V3, Mazda Q2, Pirelli V3, Qinetiq H1, Qualcomm V3, RWE V3, Siemens FY, Singapore Airlines H1, Suzuki Q2, Tencent V3, Uber Technology V3, Zurich V3

Friday

  • EU, industrial production data

  • India, monthly CPI figures

  • Japan, monthly PPI data

  • Results: AstraZeneca V3, Burberry Q2, Deutsche Telekom V3, Lenovo Q2, Mizuho Financial Group Q2, Rakuten V3, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Q2, Toshiba Q2, Xero V2

World events

Finally, here is an overview of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party meets in Beijing to set China’s agenda at its sixth plenary session

  • EU, European Parliament Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee hear evidence of Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen

  • Global Entrepreneurship Week, an annual celebration of beginners, begins

  • Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) ministerial summit opens. Although officially hosted by New Zealand, the event will be held entirely online

  • US will reopen airports for vaccinated passengers arriving from China, India, UK and many other European countries

Tuesday

  • Commemoration of the fall of the Berlin Wall

  • EU Ecofin Council of Economic and Finance Ministers held in Brussels

  • The 41st session of the General Assembly of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) begins in Paris

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

  • Nepal, first round of parliamentary elections

  • US court trial begins in Los Angeles for singer Britney Spears’ conservatism

  • The London Jazz Festival begins

Saturday

  • UK, Lord Mayor’s Parade in the City of London, to commemorate the right granted by King John to the citizens of the Square Mile to elect a leader.

Sunday

  • Bulgaria, parliamentary elections

  • Italy, Association of Tennis Professionals Finals begin in Turin

  • UK, Remembrance Sunday commemorations at the Cenotaph in central London

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