Turns out, Spooj is bad at Kinda Logic


Julia Galif, host To say logically The co-founder of the podcast and Applied Rationality Center, was not impressed by Star Trek’s hyper-rational goodness.

“Spock is held up as this example of logic, reasoning and rationality, but he, in my opinion, is almost a weak caricature – set as a man of straw, logic and rationalist, because he continues all these dumb mistakes,” he says in episode 462. Galaxy’s Geek Guide Podcast “This is the show’s way of proving,‘ Aha! Argument, logic and rationalism are not really that big. “

In the case of the franchise, Spock makes confident predictions based on his higher volcanic mind. Gallagher was interested in seeing exactly how many times these prophecies were published. “I gave in between Star Trek episodes and movies – I found all the copies I got – and Spoke searched for an example using the word ‘odd’, ” probability, ” opportunity, ” obviously, ”” ” Perhaps, ‘etc,’ he says. “I’ve cataloged all the instances where Spock made a prediction and whether that prediction came true or not.”

The results, which are contained in Galeff’s new book Scout Mindset, Destructive. Spoke not only has a horrible track record – events he describes as “impossible” 833 percent of the time – but his level of confidence is actually the opposite of reality. “The more confident he is that something will happen – the ship will crash, or they will survive – the less likely it is to happen and the more confident he is about something, the more likely it is,” Galif said.

The biggest weakness of Spock is the failure to understand that other people don’t always behave “logically”. He doesn’t even try to update his method after the mistakes kill his chromate no

“He’s not a spring chicken,” Gallagher said. “He has exchanged views with non-Vulcans before, and perhaps he has ample opportunity to see that, in fact, a lot of people don’t behave the way he thinks he will behave rationally. And yet he failed to learn from the examples of missed prophecies because instead he simply stingy said, ‘Well, the world doesn’t behave the way it should.’

Listen to the full interview with Julia Galeff in episode 462 Galaxy’s Geek Guide (Above) and see some highlights from the discussion below.

Julia Galliff on Epidemic Confidence vs. Social Confidence:

“We tend to refer to two different things by the word confidence. One of them I call ‘epistemic confidence’ and how confident it is in your beliefs. Are you 100 percent certain that your company is going to be successful or are you just 30 percent sure?… And Then there is another kind of self-confidence which I call ‘social confidence’ and that is how confident you are.Do you have a good attitude? Are you speaking in a confident voice? Do you go out and take responsibility and do things? Feel free to say and keep your ideas out? And what I’ve learned – both are some academic studies that I actually consider polite, and then look at real-life case studies Jeff Bezos“It’s social confidence that is important for people to win and for them to look for you and follow you.”

Julia Galef on stable bias:

“Some people would argue,‘ No, it’s very good that human life is about 85 years old. Even if we find a way to increase it, we shouldn’t. ‘And there are various reasons why it would be bad. ‘If we lived longer, we would be bored’ or ‘If we lived longer, the pace of change in society would be very slow, because social growth and new innovations die as the old generation dies and the new generation changes as they take their place. পরীক্ষা To test whether the motivation to defend your current life span is the result of partial status bias, you can imagine that the 85-year lifetime was not static and instead the static was 170 years. Do you think that if a genetic mutation halved that lifespan to 85, it would be a good thing? Would you say, ‘Yes! Will the society start changing rapidly now ‘? Or would you say, ‘No, it’s a tragedy that we lived 1,170 years and now we’re only 85 years old’? So I think flipping this around can really change the way you live your life. “

External tests Julia Gulf:

“The thought is to simply teleford an alien into your body – imagine your position and now in the face of these decisions you are discovering yourself in your life, but you have been doing it for years, regardless of the emotional things you have got.” . The alien is just asking them, ‘I’m here. Have I decided to go to grade school for two more years in exchange for this degree, or am I doing something else or what do I like best? ‘Imagine how these aliens in your location would choose – or how the choice would appear to them – I think it might be a good way to get rid of all the stuff and see what the situation looks like, apart from the fact that I am. “

Julia Galeff Batman TV shows:

“I was 1-17 years old and I thought this was what people in the was0s considered a serious adventure show, a serious drama. So I just felt superior to them – ‘I can see how disturbing it is, because I’m sophisticated, but people in the 60’s were too vague to know what was so dumb’ and I think as much as I told some people – I Some mentioned how polluted people were in the 60’s and once someone said to me, ‘You know Julia, it was always made as a camp. ‘Everyone who saw it in the’ 60s saw it as a ponytail. ‘ … And after they explained it, it was obvious to me and I was in such a shock that I assumed that people in the 60s could be so stupid, and it didn’t seem surprising to me, and I didn’t question it . “


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