Wed. Oct 20th, 2021

When will the Kovid-1 Pand epidemic end?

Illustration: Elena Scotty (Photo: Shutterstock)

I sometimes think of a phone call with a friend in the spring of 2020. Cases dropped, and pundits were optimistic: it seemed possible, however, that it would all be over by mid-summer. This past two months, I’ve been telling my friend – will they feel like a weird dream, from the benefits of summer? When, three months later, the bars were crowded and the mask factories were torn down, what would we do with the memories of spring? To whom my friend said something like: Who knows, it’s hard to say. And then we talked about something else. And then the epidemic continued for another eighteen months. And now we’re here, and it’s still epidemic, and while things were infinitely better than a year ago, the real thing is we’re still after the masked subway. So: when, right, can we claim for sure that this thing has been licked? Which matrix, which information on the ground, will determine when we will be able to return to perfectly normal? For this week Jit asks, We have reached out to many experts to find out.

Associate Professor, Epidemiology, University of Michigan

The uncertainty is actually too big to hold any kind of specific date, although it’s pretty clear that we still have a long way to go. In terms of how it ends – as far as I want to get to “Covid Zero”, at the moment I hope we’re moving to a local, possibly seasonal infection, where most people have been vaccinated or at least some have immunity due to previous infections and so the infection is less severe. Is. It adheres to preventive strategies such as masking and vaccination (and expanding vaccine access worldwide) to reduce infection and stress in the healthcare system, Covid-1. It is important to reduce the number of deaths and fatalities on the way to epidemics.

When it comes to criteria, I would expect the epidemic to be considered “last” when cases, hospitalizations and deaths due to Covid-1 to consistently come down to relatively low, manageable levels. In terms of numbers, this may vary from country to country, but we usually see something similar to what we see from the flu, which causes an estimated 12,000-61,000 deaths each year in the United States (375,000 deaths in the United States in 2020 due to Covid-1, and About 255,000 more in 2021)

It is important to note that different locations are likely to reach the end of the epidemic at different times (based on vaccine access / adoption, social distance and other mitigation measures, etc.), and even if the epidemic is “over” we still have to fight its long-term effects Covid, mental health effects, misinformation and mistrust problems, or economic effects.

George is an emergency physician and professor of public health at the University of Washington, and its author Lifeline: The journey of a doctor in the fight for public health

I don’t think we, as a society, have defined what it means to end the epidemic. If there are no more cases of Covid-1 of, will it be ‘finished’? Will it ‘end’ when hospital admissions are so high that we are no longer concerned about making our healthcare system irresistible? When the death toll falls below a certain number, will it be ‘finished’? In any case, I think most people would agree that Covid-1, the worst public health crisis of our lives, is no longer a matter of urgency. I don’t think we’re going to reach that level of stability anytime soon. Of course, this does not happen when young children are still unfit for vaccination; Even then, there are many around the world, including the weakest of us, who do not have access to vaccines. At some point, we need to reach a new understanding of what it means to reach a stable state of this epidemic, where it is no longer at the top of our minds in every decision we make. But we are nowhere near that point now.

Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, specializing in Infectious Diseases, Critical Care (ICU) and Emergency Medicine

This global epidemic will end when most countries in the world will be able to treat the Covid-1 treat like other respiratory viruses they have been dealing with for years. SARS-CoV2 is an efficiently transmitted respiratory virus that has a wide range of symptoms that spread to an animal’s habitat এটি it cannot be eradicated or eradicated. The goal is to eliminate the potential for serious illness, hospitalization, and widespread mortality. This is best achieved by vaccinating people at the highest risk for complications so that cases are isolated from hospitalization but there will always be a baseline level of cases, deaths and hospitalizations. Natural immunity also plays an important role after infection but is not the best way to control the virus. The epidemic will eventually transform into a permanent state, and the post-epidemic world will be one where Covid-1 still exists but in a much more controllable environment.

Professor and Chair of Epidemiology at UC Berkeley

The honest answer is that no one knows for sure, partly because of an unknown future about the variety that can survive vaccine-induced protection, and partly because it is not clear when we will be vaccinated in a higher part of the world’s population. But the future is likely to be one where SARS-CoV-2 regularly occurs in the human population and becomes a local infection / disease, possibly a seasonal pattern of influenza. I think that scenario won’t stay with us for at least 12-18 months.

Dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health and Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health at George Washington University

The task of creating an adequate vaccine, and taking it into everyone’s hands, when the virus exceeds its ability to mutate – is not fast. I think it will be at least a year until the epidemic ends and it is extremely optimistic. The inequality involved in vaccine production, and the level of resistance we see to vaccines, means that it may actually be a few years before it ends.

It’s polite. First, our knowledge of coronavirus was not as good as it should have been. We did not anticipate how quickly this could change. Meanwhile, our knowledge of human behavior, as we learn, is incomplete. The levels of miscommunication that we will face, and the lack of scientific literacy are not predicted. People know that some vaccines use mRNA but if you don’t know enough about genetics or the science involved it can be scary instead of reassuring. People start moving towards Tangent – “Well, what does this do to you?” – Don’t understand how genetics works. It’s understandable to me that people have that concern or fear, but it’s leading to vaccine dilemmas. This is very bad because science tells us that mRNA does not change the body’s DNA in any way.

Then of course there is the problem of creating a vaccine for children, which has become much more frightening than I, as a pediatrician, ever thought it could be. The virus is still spreading among children, and it is keeping this epidemic alive, because as long as children are spreading the virus, we are going to see more groundbreaking infections in the adults around them.

We will know that this epidemic is over when we are no longer monitoring the additional deaths due to covid every day – not just in the United States, but around the world. One thing we do know is that this epidemic will not end until Kovid is roaming around the world. This does not mean that we have to drop every case. What we can conclude is a situation where the virus becomes like a cold or annual influenza through population immunization, or mutations, or both, where we must pay attention to it, perhaps as a seasonal infection every winter, and People have to be vaccinated every year, but we don’t have a very high mortality rate.

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