The Climate Action Tracker research group says that despite COP26 promises, global warming will still exceed the UN target limit of 1.5C.
A climate research group said 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming was likely this century, despite promises from many countries to tackle climate change.
According to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) research group, promises by nations attending the COP26 conference to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 will continue to heat the Earth to well beyond the United Nations target limit of 1.5C (2.7F) by 2100.
“Even with all the new Glasgow promises for 2030, we will release about twice as much as required for 1.5C by 2030,” it said in a news release on Tuesday, referring to the target for warming since pre-industrial levels in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
“Policy implementation on the ground is progressing at a snail’s pace,” it added, saying with current policies there will be 2.7C (4.8F) warming.
CAT Global Update: Glasgow has a credibility gap between talk and action. If all governments reached their 2030 targets, we would have 2.4˚C warming in 2100. But at the moment, current policy sets us at 2.7˚C. https://t.co/dkX4jAbo2f
A thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/EdLlIfdhXt
– ClimateActionTracker (@climateactiontr) 9 November 2021
In all scenarios, warming will blow beyond the 1.5C limit this century, according to CAT – a target that scientists say must reach the world to prevent the most devastating impact of climate change.
The CAT said in an “optimistic scenario” where some countries’ long-term goals to stop raising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere – “net zero” – were actually implemented by 2050 or later, warming could be limited to 1.8 C (3.2F) this century.
This is the same figure that the International Energy Agency came up with for the optimistic scenario.
However, the group warned against assuming that the long-term promises would be kept, as most nations still need to implement short-term policies or legislation needed to get on track for those goals.
“The promises made so far at COP26 are quite insufficient and if only those targets for 2030 are considered, global warming will be limited to 2.4 degrees Celsius,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, one of the organizations behind the CAT, told Al Jazeera.
Hare said that estimate would be “really catastrophic” and would lead to “very high temperature heat waves, crop failure, extreme drought … and in the long run, multi-meter sea level rise”.
“The picture is slightly better if you add incredible net zero targets, which will reduce the warming to 2.1 degrees Celsius (3.8F). But the real big problem is that the policies and actions that governments have in place will push up warming to 2.7 degrees Celsius, in other words, there is a big gap between what governments promise and what they do, ”he added. .
To meet the 1.5C limit, scientists have said that global greenhouse gas emissions – mostly carbon dioxide released by the combustion of coal, oil and gas – should drop 45 percent by 2030 from 2010 levels, reaching net zero by 2050 .
Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International, said CAT’s findings were “devastating” and called on countries at COP26 to agree to meet each year until the gap closes at 1.5C.
About 90 percent of global emissions are now covered by a net-zero target – yet the “vast majority” of nations’ climate plans for the coming decade are not in line with long-term just-zero targets, CAT said.